2020’s Most Accurate Pollster Gives Trump ENORMOUS Chance Of Victory
As the 2024 presidential race heats up, new polling data from AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster of the 2020 election, is making waves. CEO Andrei Roman recently revealed that Donald Trump has a commanding 70% chance of victory based on their latest data. In a conversation between Roman and AtlasIntel’s Head of US Coverage, Pedro Azevedo, Roman pointed to the numbers and noted that Trump’s advantage has solidified despite the highly charged political environment.
Roman explained that Trump has built-in advantages that Kamala Harris, Trump’s Democratic rival in the race, would find difficult to erode. AtlasIntel’s recent poll showed Trump ahead by around 3 points nationally, a margin that Roman said is significant, especially in swing states where momentum has appeared to shift in the former president’s favor. Roman discussed how the media’s overwhelmingly positive coverage of Harris, including high-profile endorsements like that of pop star Taylor Swift, still has not managed to turn the tide against Trump.
“I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%,” Roman said. “What more could Kamala do or could her campaign do to reverse the advantage that Trump has nationally? And I don’t really see it at this point.” He pointed out that even though Harris is well-positioned, with media backing and favorable public figures on her side, Trump continues to maintain his lead.
Roman also acknowledged the fast-paced and volatile nature of U.S. politics, pointing out that major events, such as the recent assassination attempt on Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign, tend to lose public attention quickly. “People forget fast about things, and they’re sort of triggered by new events all the time,” Roman explained.
Though Roman gave Trump a 70% chance of victory, he did caution that things could still change as election day approaches. He referenced the infamous “October surprise,” a term used for unforeseen events that can dramatically shift the political landscape in the final weeks before an election. “Many things change really fast, and who knows what the driver of the vote will be when election day comes,” Roman said, indicating that despite Trump’s current advantage, unexpected developments could still alter the race. Roman closed by reaffirming his faith in the data but left the door open for future shifts.
With AtlasIntel planning to release swing state polling next week, the picture of the race will likely become even clearer. For now, Trump appears to hold a solid lead, with AtlasIntel’s projections putting him in a stronger position than many other pollsters have suggested. As the 2024 election draws nearer, all eyes will be fixed on whether Harris can mount a comeback or if Trump’s built-in advantages will carry him to victory once again.
On Monday, Trump attributed the second attempt on his life over the weekend to the divisive political climate, pointing fingers at Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden for their rhetoric. Despite the unclear motives of both gunmen involved, Trump suggested that comments made by Harris and Biden incited the suspected gunman, Ryan Wesley Routh, to take action on Sunday.
