JUST IN: Key Swing State County Flips Red For First Time In Over 40 Years
Luzerne County, a long-standing Democratic stronghold in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, has officially flipped to the Republican Party for the first time in over four decades. According to data released Monday by the Pennsylvania Department of State, Republicans now hold a slim voter registration advantage in the critical battleground county.
As of the latest count, the GOP boasts 87,415 registered voters in Luzerne County, compared to 87,332 Democrats—a razor-thin lead of just 83 voters, according to WVIA. With 203,321 total registered voters in the county, there remains a sizable bloc of 28,574 voters who are either unaffiliated or aligned with other parties. Specifically, 22,414 voters are registered with no party affiliation, while 6,160 are registered with minor parties.
Though the margin is narrow, the shift reflects a trend that has been building over recent election cycles. Despite the county’s longtime Democratic dominance, it became a key stronghold for former President Trump, who carried Luzerne in both his 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. The county’s transition is viewed as a bellwether for future elections in Pennsylvania. “We did it! Luzerne County has flipped red, and this is huge,” wrote Scott Presler on X, a Republican organizer. “Thank you to every single volunteer who worked tirelessly to make this happen.”
WE DID IT!
IT IS DONE!
We flipped Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, from 🔵🔜🔴.
This is monumental, earth-shattering, ground shaking news.
Thank you to EVERY single volunteer that contributed to this victory!
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) September 23, 2024
Republicans are hopeful the momentum will carry through as the county—and the state of Pennsylvania—once again becomes a focal point in national politics. The last time Luzerne County saw a Republican majority over Democrats during a presidential election was November 7, 1972, when the Pennsylvania Manual recorded 89,679 Republicans compared to 77,432 Democrats. That year, voters across the U.S. overwhelmingly supported Richard Nixon’s reelection against Sen. George McGovern (D-SD), with Pennsylvania included in the landslide victory. However, by 1976, just two years after Nixon’s resignation amid the Watergate scandal, the political landscape in Luzerne County had shifted dramatically, with Democrats surpassing Republicans in numbers.
In 2016, Republican nominee Donald Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania by a margin of just 44,292 votes out of over 6 million cast, translating to a slim 0.72% lead over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. This was the tightest margin in a Pennsylvania presidential race since 1840. The state had voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Trump’s victory was significant as Pennsylvania had not voted for a Republican president since George H. W. Bush in 1988, and the state leaned 2.82% more Republican than the national average.
Leading up to the election, Pennsylvania was widely considered a battleground state, with polls indicating a close race. However, many analysts gave Clinton a slight edge. On Election Day, Trump managed to outperform expectations, carrying 56 of the state’s 67 counties, particularly in rural and suburban areas. Clinton performed well in the Philadelphia metropolitan area and cities like Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Scranton, but failed to win enough support in historically Democratic regions. Luzerne County, for example, swung 25% toward Trump compared to 2012, contributing to his victory. The unexpected Republican win in Pennsylvania was pivotal to Trump’s overall Electoral College success.
Former President Trump is set to visit Pennsylvania on Monday, holding a policy event in the afternoon and a rally later that evening. Trump has made the battleground state a priority as he eyes a widening path to victory in the electoral college. Vice President Kamala Harris is also focusing on Pennsylvania, though recent polls show a tight race, with Trump continuing to rally significant support in the key state.
