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New polling by The New York Times and Siena College is good news for former President Donald Trump and is another indication that the early “enthusiasm gap” Vice President Kamala Harris enjoyed has faded.
According to the polling, Trump now leads Harris by five points in Arizona, 50-45 percent, as well as Georgia (49-45 percent) and North Carolina (49-47 percent).
“The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history,” the Times noted, citing the polling data.
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are among the seven key battleground states where both the Trump and Harris campaigns have concentrated their efforts since Labor Day. Harris has demonstrated notable strength in several crucial Midwestern states, with Pennsylvania being particularly critical to her presidential aspirations, the outlet reported.
Arizona, a state President Joe Biden narrowly won by just over 10,400 votes in 2020, now poses a significant challenge for the Harris campaign. An August Times/Siena poll found Harris leading by five percentage points, but Latino voters appear to be shifting away from her. Notably, 10 percent of Latino voters remain undecided, however.
Trump is also benefiting from ticket splitting: while Harris lags behind, the Democratic Senate candidate in Arizona, Rep. Reuben Gallego, is currently leading GOP nominee Kari Lake.
“The polls found that voters in this part of the country were worried about their own future and the future of the nation,” the Times noted.
“Whatever road we’re on right now just, to me, does not look like it’s going to end well,” said Tyler Stembridge, 41, a fire captain in Centerville, Ga., who is a Republican. He voted for Trump in 2020 and intends to do so again, he told the outlet.
In Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, about 15 percent of the electorate is still undecided or not firmly committed to a candidate, leaving room for potential shifts in voter sentiment. While this group leaned slightly toward Harris in August, recent trends show a tilt toward Trump.
Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson is confident about the GOP’s chances up and down the ballot after Harris selected Minnesota Democrat Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
During an interview with The Hill, Johnson predicted that Trump would win the presidential race and that the Republicans, in general, would perform well.
“I like the matchup now,” Johnson said when asked how the GOP conference will fare against the ticket. “I’m pleased, for our purposes, that she chose Walz, because they can’t hide from their record and I don’t think it’s going to resonate with the people.”
“We were on trajectory, prior to all of the developments of the last few weeks, to have a decisive victory in both the House and the Senate for the Republican Party,” Johnson continued. “I believe that we still are on that trajectory.”
“I’m very bullish about November,” he added.
The Speaker said from the 79th floor of a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper with a view of New York City that every Republican incumbent candidate will win reelection to the House in November.
“New York is critical to our majority, as is California and some of the other swing states. We have extraordinary incumbents in these districts, and they’re running fantastic reelection campaigns. That has been very rewarding to see,” Johnson said.
“They’re outworking their opponents, and in many cases they’re raising more money. And this has been encouraging, because they have the right message and they have the right tone and they know their communities, they know their districts, they’re presenting a very compelling case for why they need to be reelected,” he added.
